The PGM industry is positioning itself for a structural shift driven by supply deficits, steady demand growth and constrained new production but South Africa’s largest producers are not rushing into new investments, collaboration or placing bets on emerging new technology.

Sector CEOs, speaking at the PGMs Industry Day in Johannesburg today (19 March), were notably optimistic and all agreed that sector is in one of the best positions it has been in at least a decade. PGM basket prices rallied late in 2025 and into 2026, reaching an all-time high of over US$2,900/oz in January 2026 and despite a  pull-back to around US$2,000/oz, the outlook has strengthened. 

“Platinum is back, not as a legacy metal but as a strategic future metal,” stated Bernard Swanepoel, chairman of PGM Day, in his introduction to the Resources for Africa organised event. “PGMs remain relevant but the industry requires long-term action,” he said to the more than 500 industry professionals attending in person and online. “Consistency matters more than intent so, the real question is now about price, or even demand, but about whether we are building the industry the world will need, or are we running down the one we inherited?”

Paul Dunne, CEO of Northam Platinum and president of the Minerals Council South Africa, immediately responded by setting out the policy challenges facing the industry, key of which is the Mineral Resources Development Bill, 2025. The Minerals Council has openly criticised the bill, saying the bill in its current form does not adequately foster investment, growth, or transformation. 

“We have a wonderful, potentially wonderful, and certainly in my personal view, potentially good decade ahead of us for hard commodities in general across the world, and in particular in PGMs,” he said, but warned that as long there is policy and legislative uncertainty, the risk is imputed into the system, which is effectively increasing cost of capital, delays projects that may otherwise moved along by now.

Considering the opportunity for Greenfields investments, Valterra CEO Craig Miller, said it was easy to get carried away with increasing prices, but the bottom lines is a value versus volume evaluation. “We need a price of US$2,000 to US$2,500 to incentivise new Greenfields projects and we need these process sustained in the long-term to achieve the 10% return we seek.” 

Impala Platinum CEO Nico Muller pointed out that investments in new production are unlikely until the industry invests in additional processing capacity, he stressed that unless there is a market for PGMs, anything the sector does is futile. Muller believes that processing capacity and R&D are areas where the industry could collaborate. 

The real opportunities come from dissolving boundaries, said Richard Stewart, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater. “This opens up whole resources that couldn’t be accessed,” he said.

In a focussed session on new and emerging players, Marna Cloete, President and CEO, Ivanhoe Mines, Roger Baxter, Executive Chairman, Southern Palladium, and Jacques van der Bijl, COO, African Rainbow Minerals, were all positive about the state of the industry. In responding to a question on access to smelting and refining capacity, the panellists noted that South Africa is ‘blessed’ with capacity and there remains opportunities to collaborate with the majors in this regard.

McKinsey Partner, Jakob Fleischman, supported the positive outlook, albeit with some volatility in forecasts. This view was amplified by a knowledgeable panel of refiners, traders and customers, in touching on an extensive range of uses. Interestingly, in the electronics sector there is a growing interest in PGMs to replace highly-priced gold.